What happens if the planet warms by 2°C? Different Topics
Half of a degree. Doesn’t sound like much, does it. When you tweak your heating at home by half a degree it doesn’t feel very different. But for our planet, where life has depended on a stable climate for millennia, half a degree celsius is a very big deal. Every fraction of a degree matters, especially to nature, already under pressure.
For instance, the warmer the world gets, the more coffee suffers from heat and disease. 200 million people could lose their incomes, and billions of us will also lose our favorite drink. The hotter the world becomes, the harder things get for our pollinator friends. Already damaged by pesticides and disease, overheating could be the last straw for many of our vital bumblebee species.
They depend on Antarctic fast ice. So if global temperatures continue to rise as they are today, emperor penguin populations could decline dramatically. Whereas 1.5 would secure their future. We’ve already lost half the planet’s tropical reefs in just the past 30 years.
Even if the world warms by only 2.5 degrees, that’s enough to kill anywhere between 70 to 90%. But at two degrees it’s likely that all warm water coral reefs will die. Already vulnerable, snow leopards are seeing their habitat shrink as their snowy landscape warms up. As their food supplies get low, they turn more to livestock, bringing greater conflict with local people.
The four years since the Paris climate change agreement have been the hottest ever recorded. I hope The more we delay cutting greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the risk for people and nature. We know the 1.5 degree target won’t be easy. It will require huge changes to energy and farming and the way we all live our lives.
That’s why we need a bold, clear, urgent commitment to 1.5 degrees.
What Happens If The World Warms Up By 2°C? Problem
sky news Information
2° is the target for limiting the global temperature increase but if greenhouse gas emissions were halted now temperatures would still Rise by up to 1° C 6,000 years ago temperatures were at this level and America’s Midwest was a desert the world’s food production centers will become Barren again in this future mountains lose their glaciers and rivers vanish the Indian subcontinent fighting for survival a single degree temperature increase could eliminate fresh water from a third of the planet within 85 years warming at the poles
happens faster than the global average 40% of Arctic sea ice has disappeared in the last 30 years while ice reflects heat oceans absorb it so as ice melts the process becomes self-reinforcing more ocean surface means more heat absorbed which raises temperatures making the ice less likely to reform mountainous regions are at greater risk of land slides as the permafrost which held them together for thousands of years melts away lowly countries like the males are submerged as sea levels rise and countries already
hit by hurricans face ever greater storms at a 2° rise people begin to die in what are now considered normal summers in 2003 with temperatures 2.3 de above average 52,000 people died across Europe plant growth slows down then stops they don’t absorb carbon dioxide as efficiently instead emitting it the extra carbon sees global warming spiral out of control 125,000 years ago when temperatures were 2° higher sea levels were up by 6 M today that extra water makes up our Polar Ice which is melting by the year 2100 sea levels could Rise
by a meter displacing 10% of the world’s population in this 2° future ecosystems across the globe collapse the species migrate and fall out of snc a third of all life on Earth faces Extinction scientists say we can still avoid a 2° rise if we limit our carbon emissions to no more than 2.9 trillion tons we’ve already used 1.
9 trillion tons we have 1 trillion left to use between now and forever at the current rate we’ll use it in just 21 years is
See what three 3 degrees of global warming looks like
3°C It can be the difference between snow and sleet Wearing a jacket or not In your day-to-day life, it may not seem significant But 3°C of global warming would be catastrophic Heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, even fire 3°C of warming is really disastrous The scary thing is, the world is well on its way there Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.
3°C This is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with Children born today… …are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents If global temperatures do rise by 3°C… …what would their world look like? Rising sea levels Desertification Hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world While blockbusters like this are clearly fiction…
this film will show the scenario we all face… …unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels In some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear The slums of Bangladesh’s capital are filling up with climate migrants Minara comes from Bhola District, an area in southern Bangladesh There, like many other parts of the country…
.rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers… …are washing away people’s homes Many, like her, have lost everything Our home in Bhola had endless amounts of land There was lots of space for farming, we had a spacious house There were different types of fruits, vegetation and trees growing at home We used to eat the fruit from our own trees I can’t eat them now because they don’t exist anymore Since the river flooded for the third time, I had to flee to Dhaka Life was much better back home.
Air quality in China: Pollution levels down by 42% over the past ten years In All World
It was unbearable to live through, truly intolerable We didn’t have the time to save anything at all 1.1°C to 1.3°C of global warming has already transformed Minara’s life It’s one of the reasons why so many migrants like her… …are moving to the city each year… .
..nearly 400,000 according to the last estimate And climate models show there could be much worse to come Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj… …has spent the last ten years modelling future climate scenarios… …for the United Nations The models we use to carry out this exercise… …really represent the state of the art… .
of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading Joeri’s projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world Here this is the 3°C level… …and so there is at least a one-in-four chance that under current policies… …we would hit 3°C by the end of the century This is just one of the scenarios Joeri looks at Another one imagines that all policy promises are kept The most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept…
and net-zero targets are met Where our best estimate ends up around 2°C at the end of the century… …there is still a one-in-20 chance that we end up with 3°C instead One would not be entering a plane if there is a one-in-20 chance… …that the plane will crash A rise of 3°C would affect everyone Even wealthy cities in rich countries wouldn’t be immune to the consequences European capitals like Paris and Berlin.
would bake under more extreme heatwaves Frequent storm-surges in New York could turn parts of the city desolate In many ways, cities magnify, intensify climate events Cities are hotter than the places around them… …they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding And you can get a really bad event in a city in a way that you can’t in the countryside And because of their denser populations…
disasters in a city affect far more people Some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming But they have the means to adapt Cities tend to be wealthier than surrounding places They have a lot of amenities A city that has taken seriously the risks of a 3°C world… …wouldn’t necessarily be a worse place to be in a 3°C world But a city that hasn’t prepared for these sort of eventualities…
that might be a really nasty place So far, many developed cities have got off lightly… …but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately Smallholders—small-scale farmers—are particularly vulnerable to climate change And there are over 600 million around the world Smallholders with farms under two hectares…
produce around a third of the global food supply Central America’s “Dry Corridor”… …supports a mix of smallholdings and medium-sized farms Sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea… …the area is prone to droughts Israel Ramírez Rivera is a smallholder in Guatemala Here, climate change is making the dry seasons longer, and more severe This is the biggest ear of maize that this plot could deliver He depends on his crops of corn and beans But they’re getting harder to grow The surrounding mountains…
used to provide us with native food… …and now that isn’t an option anymore… …due to climate change and its effects Nearly two-thirds of the smallholders in the Dry Corridor now live in poverty The impact of all of this for us… …malnutrition among children We’ve lost a few For my crops especially, the midsummer heat is harder than before The plant dries up and can’t provide us…
with the necessary food provision Severe droughts in Central America… …are now four times more likely than they were last century Many families from here have gone to the States The economic despair and debts… …have pushed many people from this community to do this journey Migration from Guatemala to the United States has quadrupled since 1990 Not all of this has been due to climate change But longer droughts would force even more to move In a 3°C world, annual rainfall in this region…
could drop by up to 14% At 3°C, over a quarter of the world’s population… …could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year Northern Africa could see droughts that last for years at a time But for some, too much water will be the problem 10% of the world’s population lives on a coastline…
that’s less than 10 metres above sea level For these coastal inhabitants, a 3°C world would spell disaster By 2100, global sea levels could have climbed by half a metre from 2005 levels Low-lying cities like Lagos would be especially vulnerable… .
with up to up to a third of the population displaced And in Fiji, rising waters are already upending lives You can see the graveyard there, it’s all under water now… …due to this rising sea level and climate change The village of Togoru in Fiji is being swallowed by the sea Barney Dunn, the village headman, has seen over half the village disappear Relatives’ houses have been abandoned, and family graves are now under water We have been asked by the government to relocate…
but no one wants to relocate… …because we have our great-great-grandparents down there in the sea This is the place we’ve been brought up in …it’s not easy to leave Past attempts to build a seawall haven’t worked But Barney sees building a new one as the village’s only hope If they do that, maybe we can save whatever is left But if we don’t have the seawall, then it will be keep eroding and time will come…
maybe in ten,15 years, Togoru will be all eroded Rising seas also mean storms cause more floods And many more countries could suffer The Philippines and Myanmar are just two countries… …that will also see an increase in storm surges in a 3°C world To escape, many will move… …often, to urban areas Half the world’s population already lives in cities…
almost a third in slums For them, a 3°C world could be deadly Minara has moved to Dhaka to escape the impact of climate change But life could get even worse for her I’m struggling a lot nowadays The heat during the day is unbearable Even late at night it doesn’t cool down The heat is getting more intense every day I mean, it’s going to get much worse I can barely survive it now, how will I live through it in the future? Dhaka is getting hotter In the last 20 years the average daytime temperature…
has crept up by nearly half a degree Days that approach 40°C are now being reported And high so-called wet-bulb temperatures are on the rise A wet-bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity Humans cool themselves by sweating… But in these conditions, when relative humidity is near 100%… .
sweat doesn’t evaporate well So people can’t cool down… …even if given unlimited shade and water At a high wet-bulb temperature, the body can’t lose heat… …and so it gets hotter and hotter… …and the body is designed to work at a given temperature And if it gets too hot inside, you will die The human limit for wet-bulb temperatures is 35°C…
around skin temperature Dhaka will have a much higher chance… …of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures… …if global warming reaches 3°C You can’t really adapt to that You have to get out. If the temperature is so high that you can’t work… …can’t do hard manual labour outside for significant parts of the year…
then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy Jacobabad in Pakistan, and Ras al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates… …have already recorded deadly wet-bulb temperatures More of the tropics and the Persian Gulf… …as well as parts of Mexico and the south-eastern United States…
could all get to this threshold by the end of the century Climate modelling might show us the weather But it doesn’t show us its other effects on society Established migration patterns could change Climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders Within countries, more people will move to cities In a 3°C world, tens of millions of people a year…
could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change When people are displaced by climate… …they may well go to cities… …because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already A lot of people who can get to the developed world… .
not least because the developed world tends to be less hot, will give that a go As migration around the world increases… …there could be more competition for fewer resources Water—already a highly contested resource—will be a focal point Turkey’s new Ilisu dam has reduced the flow of water into Iraq China lays claim to rivers vital to India and Pakistan The prospect of a water-conflict makes people very uneasy How national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions…
in a 3°C world… …is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out I think you’d have to be incredibly sanguine… …not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about… …in a 3°C world wouldn’t lead some places… …to the brink of societal collapse Those lucky enough to escape unrest…
would still have to adapt to a radically different world People can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways, one of the most obvious ones… …is air conditioning But other ways to adapt at a local or regional level… …I mean, one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture There are physical things you can do, like seawalls The fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering…
doesn’t mean that it will eliminate suffering Suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet Adaptation will only get the world so far The best way to deal with a 3°C world… …is not to go to a 3°C world And that’s why increasing efforts on mitigation are important It’s why working towards negative emissions…
that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important Once you get to a 3°C world, you are in real bad global trouble The scale of change needed… …and the slow progress of governments so far… …means 3°C of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions…
are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030 The need to act has never been clearer There’s still time to reduce emissions, so that a 3°C world remains fiction… …rather than becoming fact .